Energy Information Administration 2020 Outlook

March 2, 2020

In a recent blog published on the American Petroleum Institute’s website, a thorough review of the federal government’s latest energy projections were revealed in an easily digestible infographic-style layout. The good news is, that they portray a U.S. energy future that continues to be driven by natural gas and oil.

The projections show a future of ongoing production growth, greater efficiency, and with the U.S. as a net energy exporter and leader of emissions progress. All are connected in various ways to shale reserves and safe, modern hydraulic fracturing, which includes a thoughtful and proactive approach to emissions reduction.

The article establishes that Americans understand how far the United States has come in the past decade and a half, thanks to shale and hydraulic fracturing, helping advance the goal voiced by U.S. presidents since Jimmy Carter of seeing this country end its reliance on foreign energy. Indeed, in December the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) confirmed the United States as a net exporter of energy in total for the first time since the 1950s.

Key highlights from the article (and the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2020) include:

• EIA projects the U.S. will continue to produce historically high levels of natural gas and crude oil. U.S. oil production reaches 14 million barrels per day by 2022 and remains near that level through 2045.

• EIA says this production, coupled with slower growth in domestic demand, will lead the U.S. to increase its exports of crude oil, petroleum products and liquefied natural gas (LNG). The U.S. becomes a net exporter of petroleum by volume after 2020.

• EIA projects the U.S. will export more petroleum and other liquids than it imports annually starting this year, with domestic production continuing to rise and decreased domestic consumption of petroleum products. EIA says net exports of U.S. petroleum and petroleum products peak at 3.73 million barrels per day in 2033 before gradually declining as domestic consumption rises.

• The U.S. became a net natural gas exporter on an annual basis in 2017, exporting more natural gas than it imported in 2018 and last year. EIA projects U.S. LNG exports to more distant destinations will increasingly dominate the U.S. natural gas trade, and the United States is projected to remain a net natural gas exporter through 2050.

• EIA’s reference case assumes trend economic growth over the forecast period – and with it, corresponding efficiency improvements through technological change and demand for energy from the industrial and transportation sectors. That’s the context for EIA’s projection of an uptick in U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in the 2030s. The overall perspective is that by 2050, EIA says, these emissions still will be 4% lower than 2019 levels.

I encourage you to read this article for yourself and share with others. The graphics provided in particular are outstanding.

As always, if you have questions about what ONE Future is doing to reduce emissions within its membership contingency, how we report, or how our reporting fits in to the overall efforts of the industry, do not hesitate to send me an email.